Author Archives: dunster

The Sources of the Financial Crisis

October was a month of breathless financial reporting.  There was a lot to be breathless about – the markets were crazy, day after day after day.  I know that every editor told every reporter “Explain why this is happening!” It was what the readers wanted, and hell, it might even land a Pulitzer if you got it right.

What happened was that everyone who had an axe to grind brought it out for sharpening.  Depending on who you talked to, the problem was:

  • unrestrained greed of individuals and corporations
  • politicians who demanded that low-income citizens be able to purchase homes they ultimately could not afford
  • deregulation
  • excessive regulation

Each one of those explanations left me unsatisfied.  The arguments were all made by the usual suspects, making the usual, predictable arguments.  “Sure, that might be part of the problem,” I said to myself, “but that’s too glib and leaves too much unexplained.”

So far, I think that Michael Lewis is closest to the real truth.  We’ll see if history agrees.

Sloshing Through Alewife

Alewife station is such a dump.  Every time it rains the lobby is littered with bowls, small trash barrels, and giant, rolling trash barrels, each centered under a leak.  Most of them are overflowing.

I confess that I drove to Alewife today, rather than bike – the heavy rain turned me into a wuss.  At 9AM, the only parking spots are on the roof, and I parked there.

Returning this evening, I found that not only was the escalator to the roof out of order, but so was the the escalator the fourth floor.  Flooding, I presume.  So, I took the stairs.  And had to slosh my way up the stairs, stepping through running water sluicing down each step.

What a dump.
UPDATE: A video of Alewife leaking.

The Usefulness of Twitter

I started Twitter the way many people do: by mocking it.  “Why would anyone want to know what I’m having for breakfast?”  After enough positive reviews, I figured what’s the harm in giving it a try?  I tried. It moved from “try” to an interesting experiment to a real medium.  I have more regular Twitter readers than I do blog readers.  I have more Facebook readers, but they get my Twitter feed, so that point is kind of moot.  If I want to say something, and I want to be heard, Twitter is my biggest megaphone – and people listen.

Today was a new threshold – Twitter gave me information that no one else could.  

Over the weekend, my iPhone dropped off the net.  No text messages, no emails, no voicemail, no phone calls.  (Note the order there.  My “phone” is rarely used for phone calls.)  I was pretty sure the phone was fine, and confirmed that by traveling around.  I know my house wasn’t the problem because I’d been using it lots at home.  AT&T’s support was unavailable.  I entered a support request on an awful form, one that had a required field for “problems with your phone” even though my phone had no problems.  Still no response on that, 48 hours later.  At times I marvel that I willingly give a company $500/year for such crappy service.

I also tweeted: “Having all sorts of problems with my cell signal. AT&T appears to be having equipment problems in Arlington/Lexington.”  It was a message in a bottle.  I didn’t expect an answer.  Really, I was just posting to a few hundred friends in case they were wondering why I wasn’t returning their call.

Lo and behold, I got a reply.  I have no idea who this guy is.  Apparently he lives less than a mile away from me.  But he knew my problem, and he knew  why I was having the problem: “@dunster I saw your Arlington/AT&T related Tweet. The tower on Route 2 near Dow Ave is fuct. They’ve been working on it all weekend.”  Here’s this guy I don’t know, but he can see my problem and see the cause of the solution – and he can share the information in a meaningful way, and the world can see the answer.

This is a powerful network effect. 

A Bad Time to Be Gay in California or Asian in Florida

Obama is going to be President.  That’s a big historical milestone for our country, and I’m glad I could witness it.  On a more tactical level, I can’t say that I’m excited about it.  Passing union-supported card-check legislation?  Writing blank checks to failing car companies? I’m not jumping for joy.  I will admit it beats the likely alternative – McCain would be worse.  “Best alternative” and “good choice” are very different in this case, I fear.

Obama wasn’t the big story for me.  The biggest question this November was the decision to ban gay marriage in California.  52% of the state voted to prohibit gay marriage.  They should be ashamed of themselves.  For whatever reason, devoted gay couples can’t make health care decisions for each other, can’t make property decisions, and can’t fill out wills like straight couples can.  It’s just nuts.

I’d like to point out two other state questions:

  1. Florida voted to retain a law that forbids Asian immigrants from owning land.  The law is on the books and unenforceable.  Florida could have repealed it, but 52% of the state thought it was a good idea.
  2. California voted to mandate bigger cages for chickens.  63% of the state voted for this one.  I’d love to meet the people who voted for hens but against gays.
I’m pissed but not freaked about these votes.  I think the political tide is still moving.  Gays will get to marry, in California and elsewhere.  Asians will be allowed to own land.  And the hens?  I can’t say that I care.

Life Update

18 days without a post.  What’s up with that?  When I last wrote, I was on a tear – I’d been posting regularly for weeks, and had a backlog of things to write about.  Without warning, I hit a dryspell.  I find it easiest breaking these spells by just spewing for a few minutes about what I’ve been up to.

House: It’s no surprise that buying a house takes time.  I also report that it sucks.  Buying a house is just not fun.  I’m convinced that I’ll be happy with the end result, but the process just sucks.  It’s a lot of money; there’s no one in the process that you can really trust.  There are a million opinions about how to make decisions around price, value, what you can afford, what’s broken, what’s fine, etc.  And there are a million people who will charge you a million different prices to answer these questions for you.  How do I tell them apart?  Fuck if I know.  I build software, and read politics!  How the hell do I know what (if anything) I should pay for a radon test?

As bonus, the sellers have been really flaky.  I signed the purchase and sale agreement on October 8th.  The sellers didn’t provide a signed copy until the 27th!  (They signed right under the sentence that says “We agree that time is of the essence in this agreement.”)  Thankfully, Leader Bank was ready to approve my mortgage as soon as the P&S finally arrived.  

If all goes according to plan I’ll close on November 3rd, movers come on November 4th, and I’ll have my roof replaced and the asbestos removed shortly afterwards.  The lead paint I’ve decided to live with.  Here’s to no licking the window sills.

Bottom line: contractors, lawyers, bankers, and realtors all impede posting frequency.  And I really should be packing right now.

Fraternity: I just searched the archive, and I don’t think I’ve ever really posted about this.  Last October I was elected president of my fraternity alumni group (The Friends of the Lambda Phi Chapter of Alpha Delta Phi, to be pedantic). I was a member of the board in the mid- to late-90’s, dropped off, and came back on in ’06.  The winter and spring were moderately demanding, the summer was fairly light, and the fall has been a ton of work.  The good news is that it’s been very rewarding.  We have 17 pledges (the most in ages) and an energized board.  I’m really excited about what we’re going to get done over the next few years.

When you get elected to a board like this, it also pretty inevitably commits you to a few other responsibilities.  You have to be the face of the alumni to MIT, to other fraternities, to the City of Cambridge, to the fraternity International, etc.  As a part of that I agreed to help MIT’s fraternity alumni group (the FSILG) with their accreditation program.  So, a couple weeks ago I spent a Saturday visiting other houses, interviewing officers, listening, giving advice, and writing reports.  It was a productive process, I think for both sides.

Bottom line: Fraternity meetings, emails, phone calls, and writing all impede posting frequency.

Grandma: Grandpa died a bit more than a year ago.  It’s been a process as the family convinces itself (and Grandma) that she’s not up to taking care of herself.  She moved to assisted living this summer.  This fall has been a process of unwinding 65 years of possessions and selling the house.  It’s been incredibly hard for Grandma, and similarly hard on her children (including my mother).  I’ve been helping out some, but there’s only so much I can do.  Like, helping to throw out old food.  How do you define old food?  If the can doesn’t have a barcode on it, it’s food you should throw away.  I will be taking the dining room set (table, chairs, buffet, and china cabinet) to my new house.  I’ll use them and like them, and they fit the house nicely.

Bottom line: Trips to Dedham impede blog posting.

Work: Work has been good.  I have another post bubbling on the burner about my thoughts on work, but I don’t think I’ll get it out tonight.  For now, suffice it to say that HubSpot continues to outperform it’s own expectations, and the job is personally rewarding and interesting.

Bottom line: Work impedes blog posting.

I’m not going to promise a quick return to regular posting.  Packing, work, fraternity, and moving all loom over the next couple weeks.  And I haven’t arranged internet at the new house yet!  I’ll see if I can get back on the writing wagon in November.

Update: How could I forget politics?  Or the Red Sox?  The Red Sox will wait, but politics will not. Go read http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/.  If you’re a regular reader, great.  If you’re not, go read it.  Now.  It’s the best writing on the web.  Bar none.  I mean it.  Go read!

High Altitude Leadership

I don’t read too many books in the management/MBA genre.  Low signal to noise, in general.  I bought one today on Amazon, and I can’t wait to read it: High Altitude Leadership, by Chris Warner and Don Schminke.

Don is a fraternity brother.  He didn’t start out as an author.  It’s been interesting watching him bull his way into places you’d never see him, and have him come out the other side as a recorder of the experience.  I’ve read other things he wrote (on screen and in print) and enjoyed them.  I just have to figure out if I read it before I pack it or afterward. . . .

The End of Wilkerson

Sen. Dianne Wilkerson appeared in court today on charges that she’s been taking bribes.  She already lost the Democratic primary and has been running a last-gasp write-in effort to retain her seat.  This headline should finally sink her ship.

I’m not at all sorry to see her go.  I’ve been a critic of her for years.  She’s been a classic big-government legislator, voting for regulation and oversight at every turn.  But, she always seemed to think that she was above the law.  All of those election regulations she voted for, they apparently applied to other candidates, not to her.

As for the criminial implications, I have a couple of thoughts:

  1. Will the charges inspire Mayor Menino or Councilors Charles Yancey, Sam Yoon, Stephen J. Murphy, and John Connolly to finally disavow Wilkerson and endorse the Democratic nominee Sonia Chiang Diaz?  Or will they consider to pretend that she’s a good representative for the City of Boston?
  2. I was always very suspicious of Judge Bolden’s actions in 2006, during the last election cycle.  He “lost” the filing of a legal decision against Wilkerson, and didn’t “find” it until after she had won the close-fought primary.   It always looked shady.  If Wilkerson is convicted of accepting bribes, it will make Bolden look even worse.  I wonder if the AG will take another look at that episode?
UPDATE: Suddenly the Councilors’ support of Wilkerson seems less strange.  And more suspicious.

Watching the Red Sox Clinch

game nightI’ve had multiple requests about Monday’s game. I don’t think I could describe it, couldn’t do it justice. I got enough requests that  I’ll give it a try.

I’ll set the stage a bit by saying that I was at Sunday’s game, the loss, the night before.  That was a long, slow, game, but dramatic and filled with emotion.  Beckett was clearly off.  I give the Sox credit for being close.  Still, it was draining and hurt the spirit.  

Side note: I think that is the first game in Fenway I’ve been to with more than 39,000 attendees.  Is that a record for the modern era?

Monday’s game had a different atmosphere.  Sunday people had arrived hoping to cheer a coronation.  Monday people came to cheer a win, but with a healthy fear for a loss.  Game 5 in Anaheim was a grim prospect, so Game 4 was a quasi-must-win game.

People were ready to stand and cheer.  Virtually any 2-out situation or key at-bat brought some of the crowd to its feet.  The rules were unclear, though.  It wasn’t unusual to look out at the park and see whole swaths of the park standing, then a bright line of division with a swath of sitters.  Who could tell what made one section stand or sit.  In my section, the very front rows tended to sit, but everyone else stood.  I was often the front-most stander, and that was a bit odd.  I really didnt’ care.

angels idiotThere were very few Angel fans.  I didn’t see any on Sunday and saw one on Monday.  I think he might have been the reason so many people stayed seated in front of me – they didn’t want to be like him, standing alone in the second row.  He got ejected eventually.

Lester was pitching a gem, and everyone knew it.  The question in my mind was whether or not the Red Sox offense would find the stroke.  They were 9 innings into a shutout streak, and you can never tell when those will break.  When the Sox got two in the fifth, the stress relaxed a half-notch. No one was writing any conclusions, but you had to like being ahead 2-0 better than the alternatives.

When the 6th and 7th passed without any threat, you started to feel a rise in expectations.  The math kicks in: “only six more outs!”  And then the Angels struck.

gametimeOkajima started smoothly with two outs.  He walked Teixeira.  A two-out walk seemed harmless enough, but with Guerrero coming up, it’s a bigger deal than you’d think.  Masterson came in and walked Guerrero.  It’s hard to blame him.  In person, Guerrero is downright scary.  He has no meaningful strike zone.  His bat can hit anything, anywhere.  Then Torii Hunter.  The situation was still manageable, still room for error: a single wouldn’t be fatal.  Just get by.  Then there was the passed ball, and suddenly it was second and third.  No more room for error.  And just like that, the mistake – single to Hunter, tie game.  Masterson got out of the inning from there.

Here’s where words fail me.  The game is frozen, but still moving.  Maybe it’s me frozen.  But the pitches keep coming, each one of them filled with risk and hope.  The game  can change now now now now now but it doesn’t change.  We’re all stuck in this weird limbo, hopeful, fearful, unable to change the outcome, unable to predict the outcome, just stuck.   We cheer, we sit, we stand, but we’re all just stuck.

The feeling changes in the ninth with an Angels lead-off double – you can feel the earth tilt against you.  Then a picture-perfect bunt gets the runner to third.  You know that the odds are really stacked against the Sox now.  The Angels are likely to score, and you know that the Sox are unlikely to muster another two runs, having scored only two in the last 18 innings.  Then, still frozen, something crazy happens that you can’t see too clearly, as Varitek charges up the third base line after a pitch.  Then you see the ball bounce away, and you know that you are doomed. Still frozen, but now doomed and frozen.  You wait for the Angel to run home.  Instead, he turns and walks into his dugout.

As you all know, what actually happened was that Varitek tagged him, then dropped the ball.  On the far side of third base in an unexpected place, you can’t tell that from the bleachers.  From the bleachers, it feels like a miracle just happened.  I was in shock, but I told Twitter what I knew. The top of the ninth passed without damage.

Then the bottom of the ninth.  It was never a sure thing, a nice one-out double, a close two-out single.  The night before had been full of chances, but no runs.  You knew there was hope, but until the run crossed the plate, it was only potential.  We’d seen potential fail before, and fail recently.  When the run crossed the plate it was joy, releif, and happy mayhem.

billy dunnI stuck around the park, smiling like a fool, cheering and shouting.  I watched the team on the screen in the lockeroom, watched them come out onto the field.  I watched their young kids sprint around the infield.  I watched them douse the cop, Billy Dunn, with champagne.  I decided that there were too many lingerers and the party was going to run out of steam before anything magical happened and  I went home.

I spent Tuesday hoarse, tired, and still a bit shell-shocked.

And that is what it’s like to be there when your team wins the ALDS.

Weather Note from Mount Washington

While we’ve been enjoying our beatiful fall weather, here comes a note from the north.  And not the Far North – from just 150 miles, a three-hour car ride north, comes the first snow of the year.  There’s enough snow on Mt. Washington to take out the snowboard.

I hurriedly put on my plastic boots, threw on my outerwear, and grabbed my snowboard to go make my first turns of the season. I knew there was a reason I left the board and boots up here after my last turns made nearly three months ago to the day.

Those pesky three months of spring, summer, and fall are over.  It’s back to winter on Mt. Washington.

Cops Blocking Road Work, Breaking Laws

Universal Hub points out the ongoing stupidity of the police unions on the civilian flagger issue.  NECN has video of “off duty cops harassing the flaggers, driving into oncoming traffic. . . the worksite temporarily shut down.”

I can’t say I’m unhappy about these incredibly stupid protests.  If the police unions were playing this smarter, they’d be more compelling.  Driving the wrong way down the road makes you wonder why that cop isn’t in jail, not about his detail shift.