{"id":334,"date":"2008-04-24T01:12:39","date_gmt":"2008-04-24T05:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/archives\/334"},"modified":"2008-04-24T01:12:39","modified_gmt":"2008-04-24T05:12:39","slug":"math-for-donkeys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/2008\/04\/math-for-donkeys\/","title":{"rendered":"Math for Donkeys"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I think it was the <a href=\"http:\/\/theelectoralmap.com\/\">Electoral Map<\/a> that turned me on to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\">fivethirtyeight.com<\/a>, and it is fivethirtyeight.com that has <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fivethirtyeight.com\/2008\/04\/math-for-donkeys.html\">this quality post<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Post Pennsylvania, he (she?) breaks down the remaining primary contests and explains what might or might not happen.\u00c2\u00a0 More specifically, he explains what needs to happen for Clinton to win.\u00c2\u00a0 He shows a few different ways to run the numbers &#8211; delegates won, popular votes, with caucuses, etc., and shows how they play out depending on the outcome of the remaining primaries.<\/p>\n<p>The poll\/math\/stat geeks will love the whole article, but those of you seeking the bottom line should scroll to the graph at the bottom: For Clinton to get an even chance of winning the nomination, she needs to improve her polling numbers in the remaining states by an average of 13 percentage points over her current standings.\u00c2\u00a0 For her to lock it in, she needs 40 points improvement!<\/p>\n<p>What about Florida and Michigan, you say?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span id=\"fullpost\"><span style=\"font-weight: bold\">Michigan and Florida are now completely irrelevant from the standpoint of the pledged delegate count. Obama will lead the pledged delegate count even with the entire Michigan and Florida delegations seated &#8212; unless Clinton improves her current poll standing by at least 23.3 points.<\/span><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The race is over.\u00c2\u00a0 The only question is how long it will take Hillary to concede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I think it was the Electoral Map that turned me on to fivethirtyeight.com, and it is fivethirtyeight.com that has this quality post. Post Pennsylvania, he (she?) breaks down the remaining primary contests and explains what might or might not happen.\u00c2\u00a0 More specifically, he explains what needs to happen for Clinton to win.\u00c2\u00a0 He shows a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-national","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dandunn.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}